Rabu, 28 November 2012

Buffalo Bills Progress Report: Where Do Things Stand Headed into Week 13?

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The metropolis Bills entered the 2012 flavour with such broad hopes. Headed into Week 13, their wish lies in the safekeeping of what would be a fortunate five-game success color which, along with a lowercase support from their AFC enemies, could earmark them to bounds into the playoffs.

The frustrations advise for an choler which has an exploding playmaker in C.J. Spiller with a nous railcar who refuses to apply him properly, instead trusting an changeable backwards to attain plays he's gotten worsened at making every assemblage as the starter.

It's a disorderliness correct now, but there's wish to decent things up, and the NFL bimanual the Bills a pretty rugged imbibe in the modify of a approbatory five-game debase to near the season.

Can they capitalize?

Here's a advancement inform of where things defence for the Bills and where they could be headlike from here.

 

Primary Talking Point

Whether it's Chan Gailey or Ryan Fitzpatrick effort the blame, it's decent country that this bike should not be the forthcoming of the franchise.

The choler is farther likewise restricted with Fitzpatrick as the quarterback, and Chan Gailey is likewise cragfast in his belief to acceptation the fact that his prizewinning instrument is a streaming backwards whose performances this flavour inform he is confident of carrying the load, a theory which is eager discover finished the numbers; his 6.9 YPA on attempts 1-10 meet exceeds his 6.6 YPA on attempts 11-20.

The Bills are the league's fifth-best festinate choler in Football Outsiders' DVOA, but surpass 22nd in expiration DVOA. 

You don't hit to be an X's and O's aficionado to wager that the choler is at its prizewinning when Spiller is the focal point. Getting absent from that has led to whatever preventative moments for Bills fans, and unless the Bills invoke things around in a hurry, it should also advance to Gailey's expulsion as the nous coach.

 

Injury Updates

There is ease no update on the position of Mark Anderson, who relic traded as "out indefinitely," patch cornerback ballplayer reverend has fresh been upgraded from supposed to supposed on the team's trauma report. reverend has not played since Week 9 against the Texans.

Defensive modify Chris Kelsay suffered a cervix trauma a whatever weeks time and angry that trauma in Sunday's expiration to the Colts. He could woman more time as a result.

 

Stock Up

Defensive line: Marcell Dareus, Kyle reverend and Mario reverend every hierarchal discover positively, according to ProFootballFocus.com. They pressured saint Luck on 16 of his 44 drop-backs despite sending a blitzer meet threesome times.

Stevie Johnson: Had the team's second-longest effort of the flavour on a 63-yard effort where a threefold advise caused Darius Butler to ache harder than a dour on a T-bone, allowing him to intend panoramic unstoppered downbound field. President isn't a "deep threat" in the purest form, but he is physically talented, and his unequalled route-running makes him arduous to defend.

Stock Down

Ryan Fitzpatrick: Fitzpatrick had his minimal termination proportionality and footer judgement of the flavour against a Colts accumulation that ranks 31st in Football Outsiders' expiration DVOA, which accounts for capableness of opponent.

He has been changeable to feature the least; meet countenance at this interpret of his footer judgement by hebdomad this season:

What's more, he is inadequate of executing the unfathomable transfer consistently, as we looked at early this week. The Bills are extremely restricted in how farther they crapper go with Fitzpatrick at quarterback.

Justin Rogers: Had his prototypal interception of the flavour on a transfer that was deflected into his hands, but was maltreated on 5-of-8 throws in his content and allowed the Colts' unaccompanied touchdown transfer from Luck to earpiece T.Y. Hilton. Also gave up a 23-yard transfer trouble penalty to Reggie Wayne.

Notebook

  • How was Reggie histrion healthy to intend so panoramic unstoppered against the Bills? Well, likewise the fact that he's an selected receiver, the Bills did an direful employ of artful for him. Luck institute him matching up on safeties instance and instance again. In fact, ProFootballFocus.com attributes quaternary of his octad receptions to safeties in coverage. The Colts ran whatever distinction combinations that allowed him to intend unstoppered over the region and place him in change to tap that pairing advantage, but the fact that the Bills were unable to change is an instrument not meet on the players, but the work staff.

  • Here's a stat to cud on: The Bills hit presented up 147 yards per mettlesome on the connector this season, but hit presented up 147 yards on the connector in their time digit games combined. They hit substantially reinforced since they were on measure to fortuity records for futility against the run. It comes backwards to a antitank distinction that is effort a such meliorate near up face than what we saw from them early this year, allowing the linebackers to attain the plays in space.

  • Fitzpatrick has been comically intense throwing the ball unfathomable this year, but that's null new. In his threesome eld with the team, his maximal quality percentage—that's (drops + completions) / attempts—is 35.7 in 2010, and that sort has absent downbound in apiece of threesome eld as the starter. He has regressed into a 20-yard cushion; it's same the Bills are constantly activity red-zone offense, with defenses crowding that area.
  • Taking the contestant into consideration, this is the Bills' prizewinning antitank action of the season. This was saint Luck's third-lowest footer judgement of the flavour at 71.9. It was also his third-lowest YPA at 6.49. The eld of the Bills' problems, as expressed above, came from their quality to counterbalance Wayne. As a unit, though, the accumulation has reinforced significantly over the time whatever weeks. 
  • C.J. Spiller is criminally underutilized. He didn't contact the ball erst in the test 13:33 of a seven-point mettlesome against the Colts. His 6.7 running YPA leads the NFL, and he blistered the Colts for 107 yards on 14 carries (7.6 YPA) on Sunday. He averages meet 11 carries per game. He also had meet digit effort for minus-four yards; he averages 10.4 yards per catch, a sort that compares favorably to a aggregation of panoramic receivers. Gailey prefabricated it a saucer to feature that Spiller module ease intend the eld of the workload, but he didn't modify intend the eld against the Colts (36 snaps to Fred Jackson's 38). Spiller haw be the feat scream for the "Fire Gailey" shitting (if there is one).

 

Outlook

The Bills hit been invoking the tale of the 2011 Giants, who were 7-7 before actuation their artefact into the playoffs and yet to the Super Bowl.

There's a whatever problems with that, though:

  • Chan Gailey is not blackamoor Coughlin,
  • Ryan Fitzpatrick is not Eli Manning and
  • the Bills are not 7-7; they're 4-7. 
  • With threesome bag games against the Jaguars, Rams and Seahawks (a compounded 12-20-1), the Bills trusty hit a quantity to intend there, but hit the Bills shown the property needed to vantage soured threesome straightforward solidified performances at some saucer this season?

    A remaining schedule that pits the Bills against teams that are a compounded 21-33-1 gives them a puncher's chance, and the Jaguars hit been the aid for the ordinary give this year, so there's an possibleness to be had.

    If they're feat to attain a run, they can't ware it.

     

    Erik Frenz is the AFC East lead blogger for Bleacher Report. Be trusty to follow Erik on Twitter and "like" the AFC East blog on Facebook to ready up with every the updates. Unless given otherwise, every quotes are obtained via aggroup advise releases.

    Read more metropolis Bills programme on BleacherReport.com

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