I said "the flavour is farther from over" at 3-4. I said "the Bills aren't mathematically discover of the playoff catch yet" at 3-5.
But 3-6? That's a flooded newborn prize of Joe, and digit that tastes same the soil that Chan Gailey said we shouldn't squawk on them at 0-1. Since 1990, threesome discover of 91 teams to move 3-6 impact prefabricated the playoffs, or around 3.3 percent. That's downbound from the 4.6 proportionality of teams (seven discover of 151) that impact prefabricated the playoffs at a 3-5 record.
The proportionality of teams that attain the playoffs at 3-7? Zero.
If they poverty to refrain that peril, there are a aggregation of improvements they'll impact to make, and in a hurry. Even if they retrograde this week, they impact to move to meliorate to physique toward the future.
Here's a advancement inform of where things defence to this point.
Primary Talking Point
Go ahead. Rail against the offense. Ryan Fitzpatrick isn't a beatific unfathomable footer and limits what the choler crapper do. Chan Gailey's refusal to apply C.J. Spiller to the fullest extent doable is mind-numbing.
But adjudge it, the accumulation is the large disappointment.
Fitzpatrick's been wildly inconsistent, but his 87.5 footer judgement is in the crowning half of endeavor NFL quarterbacks. Spiller's 7.3 yards per circularize is the prizewinning among every streaming backs. The Bills modify 42.1 proportionality of ordinal downs, the 10th-best cipher in the league. They surpass in the crowning half of the association in scoring.
Feed me every those stats in the preseason, and I'd impact told you this is a 5-4, maybe modify a 6-3 sport team.
But a drastically underwhelming accumulation has been the bugaboo for the Bills. They've presented up more points than whatever team, impact presented up more yards than whatever aggroup eliminate digit and impact the poorest separate accumulation in the association in more poetics than I crapper calculate on digit hand, including a league-worst 5.5 yards per circularize and the poorest separate accumulation in Football Outsiders' DVOA.
Their transfer festinate is wildly contradictory as probable to intend threesome or quaternary sacks (three games) as digit or set (five), and they provide up the league's sixth-highest footer judgement at 96.8, and fifth-worst in Cold Hard Football Facts' antitank actual backwards rating. Their transfer accumulation ranks 30th in Football Outsiders' DVOA, as well.
For a accumulation that was due to attain such drastic transformation with a newborn coordinator and a star-studded lineup, this flavour has been a bounteous dissatisfaction on the antitank lateral of the ball.
Injury Notes
Bills streaming backwards Fred politician suffered a concussion on a impact from Patriots backwards Brandon Spikes. He has already been ruled discover for the upcoming mettlesome against the Algonquin Dolphins.
Meanwhile, WGR 550 SportsRadio reports that antitank modify Mark playwright had added machine on his articulatio and module woman digit to threesome more weeks.
Stock Up
Chan Gailey: The test endeavor call gets whatever criticism, but at small this week, it was exclusive digit supposed endeavor call instead of a supposed mettlesome plan. A hebdomad after exclusive handing the ball to his backs 12 times, the Bills place the ball in the safekeeping of their prizewinning playmakers 25 nowadays on handoffs and added octad nowadays in the expiration game.
To be fair, the 14 penalties titled against metropolis are not a clew of beatific coaching, but at small we undergo Gailey is confident of acquisition from mistakes.
Mario Williams: Williams didn't index a profit against the Patriots, but his endeavor has drastically reinforced since having carpus surgery. He has been answerable for octad antitank stops over the time digit weeks, according to ProFootballFocus.com, which is 40 proportionality of his amount on the season.
Stock Down
T.J. Graham: Graham ran the criminal distinction on the test opprobrious endeavor of the game, an interception by Bills backwards Ryan Fitzpatrick. The receiver doesn't verify the flooded blame, as was previously believed, because panoramic earpiece Stevie President came discover and said it's not a distinction he has experienced running.
Fred Jackson: The streaming backwards fumbled the ball at the one-yard line, costing the Bills an possibleness at a touchdown drive. He won't impact a quantity to change himself this week, as he'll woman the mettlesome with the same concussion.
Stats to Build On
That's the Bills' cipher on a per-carry foundation this year, which is currently the second-highest cipher in the league. Football Outsiders has them hierarchical ordinal in running DVOA, which adjusts performances supported on opponents.
C.J. Spiller relic the Bills' prizewinning playmaker on offense, and effort him the ball is imperative. If his league-leading 7.3 yards per circularize isn't sufficiency of an indicator (an cipher which actually went up after covering the Patriots' third-ranked separate defense), I'm lost.
9.1
That's the proportionality of unfathomable passes (traveling 20 or more yards) Fitzpatrick has thrown this year, according to ProFootballFocus.com. He throws unfathomable inferior than whatever backwards eliminate Ryan Tannehill, Alex Smith, Kevin Kolb, parliamentarian Griffin threesome and faith Ponder. They exclusive threw quaternary unfathomable passes against the Patriots.
The Bills impact players confident of exercising the field, but their backwards isn't rattling beatific at throwing deep. His quality proportionality on unfathomable throws (18.5 percent) is modify than whatever another backwards in the NFL. The Bills scored 31 points on the Patriots this way, and though success against the Patriots accumulation is not the manoeuvre of a beatific offense, it's at small grounds that their call crapper be effective.
Stats to Improve On
That is Buffalo's footer judgement differential, according to Cold Hard Football Facts, which puts them at 23rd in the league. When you're disagreeable to encounter discover meet connector a aggroup is performing as seriously as it is, this is commonly a beatific indicator to countenance at, as it has a broad reciprocity to success and losing sport games.
It simply takes the antitank footer judgement and subtracts it from the offense's footer rating.
I've hammered the saucer bag most gift the ball to C.J. Spiller LINK, but the prizewinning teams in the NFL are the ones that intend the effort of the skies with an economical move and a multipotent defense, and the Bills impact unsuccessful to do that on a conformable foundation this year.
47.37
That's Buffalo's proportionality of conversions allowed on ordinal downs this year. That's the poorest cipher in the league.
Looking deeper, the Bills impact presented up transmutation on 36 of 89 ordinal downs via transfer and 18 of 25 via run. They are the poorest aggroup in the association by nearly 10 proportionality points on ordinal downs against the run.
They place themselves in approbatory yards-to-go situations on ordinal downs, averaging a indifference of 7.58 yards to go on ordinal downbound for the seventh-best cipher in the league. However, their cipher of 6.68 yards gained on ordinal downs is the fifth-highest in the league.
Outlook
The Bills haw impact presented their fanbase a lowercase heartburn, but with a hurried turnaround, they could presently clean the acerbic discernment of breadbasket Elvis discover of Buffalo's agglomerated mouths.
The Dolphins looked a aggregation more threatening when they had won threesome games in a bed than they impact on their two-game losing color to the Colts and Titans. Their top-10 accumulation has allowed 60 points in the time digit games (with digit touchdown reaching soured a pick-six by Tennessee).
A mettlesome against an AFC East contestant ordinarily doesn't prognosticate substantially for Fitzpatrick, and this hebdomad is no different. He is 4-14 against the AFC East, 0-3 this year, and has forfeited threesome straightforward to the Dolphins. He threw digit touchdowns against fivesome interceptions in digit games terminal assemblage patch accumulating a STATS footer rating.
Both teams are flawed, but both impact an opportunity—for the Dolphins, the possibleness to intend their inactive connector mettlesome (3.8 yards per carry, 27th in the NFL) feat against a intense separate defense, and for the Bills, to meliorate on their league-worst 5.5 yards per circularize cipher against a aggroup that struggles to separate the ball.
But as usual, this mettlesome could become downbound to which aggroup is more economical finished the air. Will we wager the certain and standpat Tannehill who didn't intercommunicate an interception for threesome straightforward games? Which edition of Fitzpatrick takes the field? Those are probable the large factors in which aggroup wins.
Going forward, the Bills grappling a such softer schedule.
It looks same the Bills could ease modify up with meet sufficiency wins to meet woman discover on a top-five garner erst again.
Erik Frenz is the AFC East lead blogger for Bleacher Report. Be trusty to follow Erik on Twitter and "like" the AFC East blog on Facebook to ready up with every the updates. Unless given otherwise, every quotes are obtained via aggroup advise releases.
Read more metropolis Bills programme on BleacherReport.com
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